Holyrood Election 2026: The count begins with Swinney’s SNP likely to fall short of a

The polls have closed and the counting has begun. Later today, we will know just who has come out on top in the Scottish elections as the results start dropping in. Early indications are that John Swinney and the SNP will fall short of a majority. But will that open the door to another coalition with the Greens?

The rival parties are eyeing up 70 constituency seats, elected by the first-past-the-post method. There are a further eight electoral regions each with seven additional MSPs based on a form of proportional voting. In total, 129 parliamentarians are elected.

The magic number for a majority is, therefore, 65 but while that looks unlikely, there could be a pro-independence majority if the SNP and Greens were to share power once again. And that could pile more pressure on Keir Starmer over the prospect of IndyRef2.